Navigating Climate Risks in the Livestock Sector: Environmental Resources, Production Sustainability, and Food Security in Pakistan

Abstract

Research Originality: This study offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of temperature, heat stress, and flood shocks, alongside environmental and socioeconomic factors, to analyze livestock production dynamics, sustainability, and food security in Pakistan. Research Objectives: The study investigates the short- and long-run effects of climate stressors and adaptive resource factors on livestock output, linking production to sustainable food systems and food security. Research Method: Annual time-series data from 1980 to 2022 were analyzed for Pakistan’s livestock sector. The Auto-Regressive Dependent Lag model and bounds-testing approach were applied to estimate both short- and long-run relationships. Empirical Results: Rising temperatures and heat stress significantly reduce livestock output, while floods cause short-run disruptions by damaging grazing systems and feed supply. Water availability, forest cover, and cropped land positively influence production. The error-correction coefficient indicates that approximately 68% of short-term disequilibrium adjusts toward long-run equilibrium annually. Implications: These findings highlight the need for climate-resilient livestock management, including heat-stress mitigation, flood preparedness, water and land-use management, and crop-livestock integration, supporting Sustainable Development Goals 2 (Zero Hunger) and 13 (Climate Action) by enhancing food security and strengthening rural livelihoods in Pakistan. JEL Classification: Q01, Q18, Q54, C32