Shifting sands? The impact of conflict displacement on voting

Abstract

Does exposure to conflict displacement amplify support for far-right parties? This study investigates the political consequences of conflict-induced displacement in northern Israel by exploiting a natural experiment arising from government-ordered evacuations during military conflicts. Using a pre-registered survey and a regression discontinuity design based on an exogenous 5 km threshold, I assess changes in retrospective and prospective voting behavior as well as self-reported political ideology. The analysis reveals no evidence that displacement increases far-right support or induces partisan realignment. Rather, evacuees demonstrate a modest rightward shift in ideological self-placement without corresponding changes in voting behavior. This divergence suggests that displacement influences symbolic political positioning without prompting corresponding changes in voting behavior. These patterns unfold against a broader backdrop of political frustration and electoral disengagement that affects both displaced and non-displaced populations. The findings reveal troubling implications for democratic accountability during external conflict: leaders may be shielded from electoral consequences of security failures even as civic engagement deteriorates, challenging models of wartime accountability.