China's AI Strategy and Its Implications for Global Governance

Abstract

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence has emerged as a defining geopolitical and governance challenge of the twenty-first century, fundamentally reshaping the distribution of power in the international system. This research paper examines China's comprehensive national AI strategy and its profound implications for the architecture and norms of global governance. Situated within a multi-lens theoretical framework synthesizing neorealism, neoliberal institutionalism, and norm diffusion theory, the study employs a qualitative case study methodology combining process tracing and systematic document analysis of primary Chinese policy documents, official statements at international fora, and secondary sources from leading think tanks and academic literature. The paper provides a detailed anatomy of China's AI strategy, focusing on the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan of 2017, the state's role as architect and driver through financial mechanisms, talent development, and data accumulation, and the distinctive ethical framework articulated in the New Generation AI Governance Principles. The analysis systematically investigates China's influence across four critical domains of global governance: the battle for technical standards, the reshaping of the global AI economy through the Digital Silk Road, the security implications of Military-Civil Fusion and autonomous weapons development, and the normative struggle over AI ethics and human rights. The findings reveal that China is not merely participating in existing global governance structures but is actively seeking to reshape them to accommodate its state-centric model, characterized by the primacy of state sovereignty, the subordination of technology to state-defined social goals, and the rejection of the multi-stakeholder approach. The paper argues that the most likely outcome of this strategy is a fragmented "splintered AI order," characterized by two competing techno-political blocs led by the United States and China, with a contested swing space in the Global South. This fragmentation has profound implications for international institutions, which face increasing gridlock; for corporations, which face pressure to choose sides; and for society, which confronts the erosion of a shared information environment. The paper concludes by offering comprehensive policy recommendations for Western policymakers, including the development of a unified Western strategy, substantial investment in AI research and talent, the creation of compelling alternatives for the Global South, and the pursuit of strategic engagement with China on existential risks.