Identifying Vulnerable Frontline Vermont Communities: An equity forward analysis of flood vulnerability

Abstract

As flood hazards worldwide increase, equitable mitigation efforts are important. These mitigation efforts are particularly important for rural communities that are underserved by emergency management and planning resources afforded to more urban settings. This study explored social vulnerability and flood risk in a largely rural state of the Northeastern United States as a model for evaluating and advancing equitable flood mitigation. A composite index was constructed to measure social vulnerability given 13 indicators at equal weights and a reported Cronbach’s α of 0.72. The index showed high social vulnerability in the Northeast Kingdom region of Vermont. Flood risk was mapped using inundation extent from an event of record on July 9-12, 2023, based on the Rapid Infrastructure Flooding Tool, drone imagery, high-water marks, and building footprints. Drone imagery was used to validate the extent by generating random accuracy points (89.5 percent accuracy). High-water marks were used as a separate validation set for the inundation extent (98 percent accuracy). Vulnerable Frontline Vermont Communities, towns with high social vulnerability that face flood risk, were identified through hot-spot analysis. Results were validated through participatory involvement of an advisory board comprised of flood resiliency experts and a focus group in Barre City. The findings can guide spatial targeting of equitable flood hazard mitigation efforts and identify key vulnerabilities to address in Vermont towns. These findings are not intended to guide immediate emergency response and should be considered with respect to the scale of analysis.