Determinants of commuter tolerance toward underage and unlicensed bus drivers: an empirical investigation using the structural and institutional tolerance of enforcement (SITE) framework

Abstract

Road crashes remain a major public health concern in Bangladesh. Official records from the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority documented 5,495 crashes and 5,024 deaths in 2023, followed by 5,856 crashes and 5,480 deaths in 2024. Dhaka Metropolitan Police records covering 2011–2022 further indicate that 45.24% of recorded crashes involving drivers younger than 18 years were fatal, although these records included multiple vehicle categories and did not isolate public buses. Despite this substantial safety burden, limited attention has been given to why commuters tolerate public transport services operated by underage or unlicensed drivers. This study developed and empirically assessed the Structural and Institutional Tolerance of Enforcement (SITE) framework, which integrates Institutional Theory, Social Norm Theory, and the Psychometric Paradigm of Risk Perception. The framework examined Public Tolerance in relation to Perceived Enforcement Weakness, Corruption Normalization, Economic Empathy, Social Norm Acceptance, Personal Risk Perception, and Regulatory Trust. Data were collected through structured face-to-face surveys with 320 adult commuters at six major transit hubs in Dhaka and analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling and direction-sensitive importance–performance map analysis. The measurement model demonstrated satisfactory reliability and validity, while the structural model explained 45.5% of the variance in Public Tolerance. Perceived Enforcement Weakness, Corruption Normalization, Economic Empathy, and Social Norm Acceptance were positively associated with tolerance, whereas Personal Risk Perception and Regulatory Trust were negatively associated with it. Personal Risk Perception had the largest path coefficient in absolute magnitude, while Economic Empathy had the largest positive coefficient. The importance–performance analysis also showed that Personal Risk Perception had the largest total effect in absolute magnitude, whereas Regulatory Trust recorded the lowest performance score. Overall, the findings indicate that commuter tolerance is associated with interconnected institutional, social, and psychological conditions. The study identifies evidence-informed policy domains involving risk communication, transparent licensing and enforcement, professional credential verification, operator accountability, and institutional trust-building in support of Sustainable Development Goals 3, 11, and 16.