An INRBO-SSA-LSTM Hybrid Framework for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting in Smart Microgrids
TL;DR
A new hierarchical forecasting structure denoted as INRBO-SSA-LSTM, which significantly outperforms traditional baseline models across all indicators and effectively accommodates temporal demand variations, offering a robust foundation for the advancement of intelligent power management technology.
Abstract
Accurate power load forecasting is critical for the efficient operation of industrial microgrids. However, raw meteorological and consumption data typically exhibit non-stationary characteristics, complicating the hyperparameter tuning of deep learning models, and subsequently degrading the prediction accuracy of these frameworks. To address the aforementioned challenges, a new hierarchical forecasting structure denoted as INRBO-SSA-LSTM is proposed in this paper. First, Pearson correlation analysis is employed for feature reduction, identifying the four main factors to mitigate the dimensionality curse. Building upon this foundation, a refined Newton-Raphson-Based Optimizer (INRBO) is introduced, integrating a cosine adaptive t-distribution perturbation, a boundary-aware non-uniform steering scheme, and a fitness-aware hybrid perturbation mechanism. Evaluated against the CEC2022 benchmark suite, comprehensive evaluations reveal that the INRBO demonstrates superior global exploration and local refinement capabilities compared to baseline algorithms when assessed on the CEC2022 benchmark suite for foundational optimization performance. Furthermore, rigorous testing on the CEC2017 suite across 10, 30, and 50 dimensions successfully validates its exceptional robustness and search capabilities in high-dimensional spaces. INRBO functions as a dual-stage optimizer within the proposed framework; in the initial phase, it dynamically calibrates the parameters of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to extract deterministic load patterns, achieving a maximum signal-to-noise ratio of 15.87 dB; in the second phase, it optimizes the global hyperparameters of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Validated using actual industrial microgrid data in Jiangsu Province, China, the proposed method significantly outperforms traditional baseline models across all indicators; specifically, the prediction error (RMSE = 10.9764, MAPE = 3.7866%) is substantially minimized, and the coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.9741) is highly optimal. This adaptable framework effectively accommodates temporal demand variations, offering a robust foundation for the advancement of intelligent power management technology.