Structural Analysis of Urban Resilience Indicators in Future‐Oriented Urban Development in Tabriz

Abstract

Urban resilience has become a cornerstone of sustainable urban development in an increasingly hazardous world, driven by climate change, rapid socio‐economic transformations, and persistent environmental degradation. Despite its recognized importance, a forward‐looking, structural analysis of the key determinants of resilience, particularly in developing regions, remains lacking. Addressing this gap, this study aims to identify the most influential urban resilience indicators and determine their cause‐and‐effect relationships to prioritize future development strategies for Tabriz, Iran. The research methodology unfolded in two phases: first, a Delphi survey with 25 experts identified the most critical variables; subsequently, a cross‐impact analysis using MICMAC software systematically examined the interrelationships among four principal dimensions, comprising 20 indicators. The findings reveal a clear hierarchy of influence. The environmental indicator emerged as the most influential (impact score: 216), exerting the strongest effect on Tabriz's capacity to adapt to change. It was followed, in descending order, by the physical (191), economic (183), and social (173) indicators. These results underscore the critical importance of prioritizing environmental considerations in urban resilience planning. By offering a structured and prospective framework for assessing resilience, this study contributes to the field and provides practical insights for planners and policymakers in Iran and other developing contexts to build more robust and sustainable cities.