Losing elections, losing trust? A quasi-experimental investigation of the winner-loser gap on political trust

Abstract

Voters’ experiences of winning or losing elections significantly influence their attitudes, particularly satisfaction with democracy, while other outcomes such as trust are less studied. Additionally, studies often rely on observational data, limiting causal conclusions about effects. We make three key contributions to this literature. First, we use a quasi-experimental design based on the implementation of the European Quality of Government Index Survey during elections across several European countries and regions to demonstrate causal effects of elections on trust. Second, we introduce a novel theoretical argument that voters of populist parties are especially sensitive to electoral outcomes. Third, we explore three ways to define ‘winners’ and ‘losers’: government/opposition status, vote margin changes, and results relative to recent polling. Our findings show that elections generally boost trust, with a pronounced winner-loser gap driven by winners, particularly when measured as entering government. Additionally, populist party voters exhibit greater sensitivity to these effects.