Publishing 2024 Presidential and Vice-Presidential Election Survey Results: Legal and Legitimate

Abstract

The General Election of the Republic of Indonesia, held on February 14, 2024, includes the selection of the President and Vice President, Members of the People's Representative Council, Regional People's Representative Councils at the provincial and district/city levels. Survey institutions play a significant role in informing the public and political parties about candidate electability. Political parties rely on these institutions to gauge the popularity of their candidates. However, inconsistencies arise when political parties blame survey institutions for unfavorable outcomes, especially when the predicted results match the actual outcomes. Additionally, concerns have been raised about the potential violation of Law Number 11, 2008, concerning Electronic Information and Transactions (ITE), when inaccurate survey results are disseminated via electronic media. This study investigates the validity of these concerns. The study examines the predictions and outcomes of the 2024 Presidential and Vice-Presidential elections. Pre-voting predictions indicated that candidate pair number 02 would achieve 53.5% electability, followed by candidate pair number 01 with 21.7%, and candidate pair number 03 with 19.2% (LSI Denny JA Survey, February 10, 2024). Quick count results on voting day showed the following vote distributions: candidate pair number 01 received 24%, candidate pair number 02 received 58%, and candidate pair number 03 received 18%. The General Election Commission's manual count confirmed these results, with candidate pair number 01 receiving 23.14%, candidate pair number 02 receiving 58.59%, and candidate pair number 03 receiving 18%, as stated in General Election Commission Decree Number: 360, 2024. This study concludes that the survey institutions' predictions were accurate and that their dissemination does not constitute a violation of the ITE law.