Why Does Digital Government Policy Exhibit Stage-Based Change?—A Textual Analysis of China's Central-Level Policy Using the Punctuated Equilibrium Framework

Abstract

China's central government policies have not evolved at a uniform pace in the transition from e-government to digital government. Instead, gradual policy accumulation has been accompanied by periods of concentrated adjustment. Drawing on 61 central-level policy documents, this study combines content analysis, annual change measurement, structural distance analysis, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) model comparison, and policy sequence analysis to examine how accumulated governance pressures are translated into policy change at particular moments. The findings identify two periods of pronounced policy change: 2015–2018 and 2022–2025. During the first period, policy priorities shifted from departmental informatization toward interdepartmental coordination, government service integration, and business process reengineering. During the second period, digital government policy expanded to encompass data-related responsibilities, data development and utilization, security safeguards, and organizational coordination, marking a further transition from service delivery to holistic governance. These changes did not constitute abrupt replacements of existing policies. Rather, they reflected the accelerated release of long-standing governance pressures under high-level political attention and agenda authorization. Policy image reconstruction, institutional venue adjustment, and the institutionalization of policy tool mixes jointly promoted policy reconfiguration, while departmental fragmentation and cross-level implementation frictions persisted. This study conceptualizes this pattern as "stage-based concentrated reconfiguration," revealing the coexistence of gradual accumulation and concentrated adjustment within a centralized policy system. The concept extends punctuated equilibrium theory by improving its capacity to explain policy changes that are substantial but not fully discrete. The findings also suggest that sustainable digital government reform requires not only high-level political support but also stable coordination mechanisms, clearly defined responsibilities, and continuous policy instruments capable of converting temporary policy mobilization into lasting governance capacity.