Geopolitically Driven Resource Stranding and Carbon Emissions from Global Oil and Gas Supply

Abstract

Geopolitical conflicts are increasingly reshaping global oil and gas supply chains, yet their implications for resource utilization, stranded resources, and upstream greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remain poorly quantified. Here, we develop a global field-level dataset covering 16,000+ oil and gas projects and integrate it with MESSAGEix-GOAT, a long-term production and trade model, to trace risk-driven redistribution of extraction, trade, and emissions through 2050. We find that heightened geopolitical risk diverts one-seventh of interregional oil and gas trade away from vulnerable routes linked to the Middle East and Eurasia toward Africa and the Americas, with domestic supply increasing in major importers. This reallocation strands about 7.2 gigatonnes (Gt) of oil and 3.3 trillion cubic meters of natural gas at the field level while unlocking higher-cost and more carbon-intensive substitutes with greater reliance on offshore resources. Cumulative upstream emissions increase by 1.8 Gt CO2-equiv (ranging from 0.8 to 3.2) by midcentury, while enhanced energy security measures can reduce emissions below the low-risk baseline. Our study underscores the need to incorporate geopolitical factors and induced resource stranding and emissions into both energy system assessment and global warming analysis.