Urban Waterlogging Risk Measurement Considering Lifeline Safety: A Case Study of Suqian, China

Abstract

Urban systems are increasingly vulnerable to extreme rainfall under climate change, where flooding often triggers cascading disruptions to critical infrastructure. While traditional frameworks focus on natural attributes or isolated socioeconomic exposure, they frequently overlook the decisive role of urban lifeline systems in disaster propagation. This study proposes an integrated flood risk assessment framework characterized by two primary methodological innovations: (1) embedding the urban safety lifeline system into the hazard–exposure–vulnerability dimensions to capture systemic risks; and (2) employing an analytic hierarchy process–entropy–game theory combination weighting approach to balance expert judgment with data-driven objectivity within a spatially explicit geographic information system (GIS) environment. Applying this framework to Suqian City, the results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in flood risk, with high-risk zones concentrated along lake coasts and in densely populated urban centers. Sensitivity analysis confirms that lifeline robustness is a critical determinant in mitigating systemic pressure. These findings underscore the necessity of incorporating lifeline indicators into urban recovery planning and differentiated reinforcement strategies. Future efforts should prioritize lifeline vulnerability monitoring and predisaster management centered on redundancy to enhance urban disaster governance and long-term sustainability.