Exploring climate change impacts through awareness, incidence, and adaptation strategies among farmers in Mid-Illovo, KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa: a principal component analysis

Abstract

This study assessed the impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers and their adaptation strategies in the Mid-Illovo region, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Using a descriptive research design, 60 farmers were selected randomly from 250 from which data were collected through a structured questionnaire and analyzed using means, frequency counts, percentages, probit analysis, and principal component analysis. The results show that more than 70% of the farmers are aware of the incidence of climate changes and engaged in crop, water, nutrient, livestock, and weather-smart practices. The results of the analysis of adoption of climate change practices reveal that age (Z = 1.671, p = 0.095), household income (Z = 1.705, p = 0.088), awareness of adaptation practices (Z= 2.562, p = 0.010), and climate change incidence parameters (Z= 2.305, p = 0.021), were significant factors. The Principal Component Analysis method identified five components, namely, Factor 1 (Eco-physiological Stress), Factor 2 (Socioeconomic Fragility), Factor 3 (Climatic and Soil instability), Factor 4 (Atmospheric Disruption) and Factor 5 (Seasonal Extremes and Livelihood Impact) and accounted for a cumulative variance of 55.63%. The study recommends the provision of climate information and early warning systems, and promotion of climate-resilient agricultural practices.