Russia’s Position in the US–China Strategic Rivalry in the Asia-Pacific: A Realist Constructivist Perspective

Abstract

The Asia-Pacific today is the main theatre of great-power politics due to its geostrategic location and its weight in the world economy. As a result, Washington and Beijing are vying to expand their influence both in the region and beyond. Meanwhile, the presence of Russia as a third major power makes that competition more obscure. This paper analyzes Russia's position within the Sino-American rivalry.  Russia is best understood as a balancer pursuing, on its own, strategic and economic interests that have been aligned with those of China, and are in part constructed alongside them, from a realist-constructivist perspective. The alignment is a matter of choice, not nature. The shared reading of American policy as threatening could provide a basis for this partnership. However, it is likely to be bounded by historical memory, by an asymmetry of dependence that favours Beijing, and by divergent conceptions of what a desirable regional order would look like. Additionally, the article states that the United States’ effort to ‘Reverse Kissinger’ to detach Moscow from Beijing will not work. The forecasted path is one of prolonged and structured competition rather than systemic warfare. The United States’ best course is to accommodate China’s regional roles rather than contain it, while Russia’s interest is in maintaining rivalry not resolving it.