Protein structure predictors achieve high single-state accuracy, but it remains unclear whether they can recover functionally relevant conformational ensembles or account for the presence of ligands and/or binding partners. Here, we benchmark AlphaFold3, Boltz-2, Chai-1, and BioEmu on four canonical multi-state proteins (Pf-MATE, LAO, SecA, and β2AR), quantifying state bias and sampling breadth against experimental reference structures. Models frequently default to a dominant state represented in the PDB; small-molecule ligands have weak or inconsistent effects, while large protein partners drive clear conformational switching between states. Multiple sequence alignment (MSA)-based approaches (AF-Cluster and random subsampling) recapitulate similar biases, indicating that this behavior is not unique to newer architectures. These results underscore current limitations for multi-state protein structure prediction and structure-guided ligand discovery. TOC Graphic
A category-stratified, statistically powered benchmark comparing pose prediction from receptor conformational ensembles against AlphaFold2, used as a matched static-structure baseline, across 29 protein–ligand systems spanning cryptic-pocket, induced-fit, water-mediated, and autoimmune-indication target classes is presented.
Ryan Varghese, Pooja Tiwary, Krishil Oswal· bioRxiv· 0 citations
It is found that, while AF3 can perform well in favourable settings, this performance is uneven across applications and its predictions and use of confidence metrics will depend strongly on the specific application area and must be interpreted with respect to training-set overlap.
O. Follonier, Yan Liu, Pablo Campomanes et al.· bioRxiv· 1 citation
Proteins are dynamic molecules capable of adopting multiple conformations. However, AlphaFold2 predominantly generates models around a single conformation, usually representing a ligand-bound state. To address this limitation, we developed AlphaConformers, a structure-guided pipeline that steers AlphaFold2 toward alternative conformations. It is based on the idea that protein structure databases can capture the structural space accessible to members of a protein family. Given a target protein, AlphaConformers retrieves structures from structurally similar proteins. These structures are organized into structure-based alignments and template sets, which are supplied to AlphaFold2 as conformational hypotheses. The resulting models are clustered and filtered, facilitating their analysis. Evaluated on a curated benchmark of 88 proteins with known ligand-bound and unbound conformations, AlphaConformers expanded AlphaFold2 conformational sampling and recovered alternative states missed by AlphaFold2 and other state-of-the-art methods. AlphaConformers ranked first for modelling subtle conformational changes commonly observed between ligand-bound and unbound states. These results show that structural information from protein databases can be leveraged to steer AlphaFold2 toward alternative conformations.
Julie Daniel, Lucas Vitoriano De Queiroz Lira, Diego J. Zea· bioRxiv· 0 citations
A comprehensive benchmarking of five state-of-the-art protein structure prediction models demonstrates that prediction accuracy systematically improves with peptide length, and demonstrates that a multi-model consensus approach provides a rational framework for identifying robust structural hypotheses in the absence of experimental reference structures.
Structure and disorder predictors are increasingly used as decision-grade tools in protein engineering and in the analysis of newly emerged proteins, yet how the current state-of-the-art behaves on sequences outside the well-charted evolutionary space remains poorly characterised. We previously reported that AlphaFold2 confidence and the disorder predictor flDPnn produced discordant predictions for naturally evolved de novo Drosophila proteins and for shuffled sequences. Here, we revisit the comparison with AlphaFold3 and the best-performing disorder predictor PUNCH2 on the same sequence sets together with conserved Drosophila proteins and intrinsically disordered proteins. The discordance persists: pLDDT correlates positively with PUNCH2 disorder in random and de novo proteins and negatively with β-strand fraction, opposite to the conserved and disordered baselines. A class-specific, score-defined driver subset jointly captures the unusual high-pLDDT, high-disorder, low-strand combination and contains 24.5% of de novo, 29.4% of random, 5.1% of conserved, and 1.3% of disordered proteins. Removing this subset normalises the correlations. A held-out classifier trained on architectural and compositional features that were not used in the driver definition recovers the subset, with helix and coil fraction, sequence length, entropy and hydropathy as the strongest predictors. The discordance is therefore not a sequence-class artefact but a localised, compositionally identifiable phenotype that current predictors handle in a non-canonical way - a concrete failure mode that protein designers and other working on sequences remote in sequence space should be aware of when relying on predictor outputs.
Lars A. Eicholt, Lasse Middendorf· bioRxiv· 0 citations
Recent AI advances have enabled protein structure prediction at near-experimental accuracy, largely solving the problem of identifying a dominant conformation from sequence. Many proteins, however, function as dynamic systems populating multiple conformational states with activity emerging from shifts in relative occupancy--an incomplete picture when reduced to one structure. Here, we argue that structure prediction should be reformulated as a state-space inference problem: recovering not one conformation's coordinates but accessible states, their energetic and kinetic relationships, context dependence, and responses to perturbations. We review emerging strategies--deep learning ensemble generators, physics-based simulations, and experimental constraints--and outline a roadmap toward state-space prediction.
Devlina Chakravarty, Justin J. Miller, Da Teng et al.· 0 citations