Dynamic Agroforestry System Model for Sustainable Community Forest Management in Babadan Village, Malang Regency

Abstract

Background: Community forests are strategic resources for improving rural livelihoods and promoting ecological sustainability; however, limited management capacity, weak market integration, and the absence of predictive management tools remain challenges in optimizing their benefits. Objective: This study develops an integrated assessment of community perceptions, vegetation characteristics, economic feasibility, and dynamic system modeling for agroforestry-based community forest management in Babadan Village, Malang Regency. Methods: The study was conducted in four hamlets (Petungroto, Babadan, Watutumpeng, and Kapurono) using purposive sampling involving 40 respondents. Data were analyzed using ANOVA, vegetation analysis (ANVEG), economic valuation (R/C, NPV, and Net B/C), and dynamic system modeling using Stella software. Results: Significant differences were found in community perceptions among the hamlets (p < 0.05), with Petungroto showing the highest perception score. Vegetation composition varied according to the dominant commodities, including teak, sengon, and clove. Babadan Hamlet demonstrated the highest economic value, with revenue of IDR 3,254,997,000, an R/C ratio of 417.3, and an NPV of IDR 98,902,555. The dynamic model indicates the sustainability of timber availability and provides a projection framework for future agroforestry management. Conclusion: This study contributes a system dynamics-based agroforestry management framework that integrates social, ecological, and economic indicators to support sustainable decision-making in community forest management.