Limited Clinical Utility of Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Electrocardiogram for Bicuspid Aortic Valve Detection: Uncovering Limitations for Specific Cardiac Phenotypes

Abstract

Bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) is the most common congenital heart defect, associated with a lifetime morbidity burden exceeding 80% and an estimated 7% probability of transmission to first-degree relatives. Hence, echocardiographic screening of relatives is recommended. The aim of our study is to develop an artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram (AI-ECG) model for the detection of BAV. Between January 1, 1990, and June 30, 2023, the Mayo Clinic healthcare system database was searched for patients aged ≥18 years with echocardiograms performed for family history of BAV, abnormal auscultation, a BAV-related diagnosis, or to rule out the condition, and with an electrocardiogram (ECG) obtained within 6 months. Cases were patients with a confirmed BAV diagnosis, and controls were those with normal aortic valves. ECGs were randomly assigned into training (80%), internal validation (10%), and test (10%) groups. The AI-ECG model was built using Keras under TensorFlow. A total of 13,065 valid ECG–echocardiogram pairs were included (mean [SD] age, 58 [17] years; 44% women), with a median time of 1 day (interquartile range, 0–3 days) between studies. With a 45% BAV prevalence in the test group ( n  = 1301), the area under the curve was 0.704, positive predictive value (PPV) 60.1%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 69.4%. At a prevalence of 7%, the NPV increased to 96.1%, but the PPV decreased to 12.2%. In this retrospective cohort and using the current AI-ECG model, BAV detection showed modest diagnostic performance and limited standalone clinical utility, suggesting that ECG-only screening for BAV may require additional modalities or more refined phenotyping.