A Causal-Driven Hierarchical Decentralised Federated Learning Framework for Resilient Load Forecasting in Distributed Microgrids
Abstract
Modern microgrids require distributed intelligence and edge computing to handle variable demand and renewable generation, but heterogeneity, communication limits, and privacy hinder centralised forecasting. This paper proposes a causally guided hierarchical decentralised federated learning (H-DFL) framework for resilient short-term load forecasting, integrating a hybrid TCN–BiLSTM with MCMC-based probabilistic causal feature selection. A three-tier architecture enables local training and hierarchical aggregation without raw data sharing, improving scalability and communication efficiency through sparse, interpretable feature selection driven by key factors such as solar and weather dynamics. Experiments on the Ausgrid dataset show improved stability and efficiency over Granger Causality (GC), Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM), and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) baselines, with intervention tests confirming robustness under solar, demand, and outage disturbances. Overall, the results demonstrate that combining probabilistic feature sparsity with hierarchical decentralised federated learning to enable scalable, privacy-preserving, and resilient load forecasting for future microgrid systems.