Environmental pollution and life expectancy in Central Asia: A 23-year analysis

Abstract

Environmental pollution is one of the major problems facing modern society, and life expectancy in Central Asia remains below world averages. This study examines the relationship between the concentrations of the principal air pollutants — PM2.5, NOx and SO2 — in five Central Asian countries between 2000 and 2023 and average life expectancy. Indicators from the WHO Global Health Observatory, the IHME Global Burden of Disease study, UNEP air quality monitoring and national environmental reports were analysed using Pearson and Spearman correlations, multivariate regression and cluster analysis, and were combined with a meta- analysis of 20 selected publications and a cross-national comparison of environmental policy reforms. A very strong negative correlation was established between PM2.5 concentration and life expectancy (r = −0.84; p < 0.001). The annual mean PM2.5 concentration in Uzbekistan was 3.6 times the 2005 WHO guideline value (35.8 against 10 μg m− 3 ). Chronic respiratory and cardiovascular disease prevalence exceeded the global average by 1.5–1.9 times. Together the three pollutants accounted for 71% of the variance in life expectancy (R 2 = 0.71). The findings indicate that an effective monitoring system combined with stringent environmental policy could raise life expectancy in the region by three to five years.