An adaptive-analytical model for a financial reorganization plan for an enterprise: architecture, triggers, and scenario-based adjustments

Abstract

The current operating environment for enterprises is characterized by high economic uncertainty, increasing financial risks, market instability, and the need to respond quickly to crises. Under such circumstances, traditional approaches to developing financial recovery plans—primarily based on static forecasts and fixed management decisions—lose their effectiveness, as they fail to account in a timely manner for changes in the enterprise’s external and internal environments. This necessitates the development of adaptive planning models capable of integrating financial-analytical, organizational, and legal tools for managing crisis processes. The purpose of this article is to develop the theoretical and methodological foundations for constructing an adaptive-analytical model of a company’s financial restructuring plan, based on the integration of systemic crisis diagnostics, scenario modeling, trigger-based response, and continuous monitoring of the implementation of restructuring measures. The concept of ASP is proposed as a multi-loop model comprising diagnostic, goal-and-resource, instrumental, financial-modeling, legal-institutional, and monitoring-trigger loops. Their functional purpose, logic of interaction, and role in ensuring the adaptability of the enterprise’s financial recovery process are substantiated. Particular attention is paid to the formation of a trigger mechanism for plan adjustment, which ensures an automated response to deviations of key financial and operational indicators from planned values. A trigger map, a matrix of corrective responses, and a criteria matrix for assessing the realism of the financial rehabilitation plan have been developed based on the integrated use of the net present value (NPV), the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), and the integral scenario stability index (ISC_r). The proposed methodological approach ensures timely risk identification, assessment of the viability of the restructuring scenario, and adoption of well-founded management decisions regarding the revision of the plan’s structure, resource allocation, and financial parameters. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the adaptive-analytical model during the development, approval, implementation, and monitoring of corporate financial rehabilitation plans, as well as in the activities of creditors, arbitration administrators, investors, and management bodies when assessing the effectiveness of financial rehabilitation procedures in an unstable economic environment. Keywords: enterprise rehabilitation, economic and legal framework, threat of insolvency, potential for restoring solvency, crisis environment, preventive restructuring, crisis management.