Comparative Analysis of Weather Impact on Aircraft Takeoff Performances in Nigeria

Abstract

Takeoff performance remains one of the most important qualities in flying activities of an aircraft. Its impacts influence both military and civil aircraft, such that there are notable effects on passenger safety, fuel economy and adherence to operational schedules. Climatic changes and variability have significantly affected aircraft by increasing the takeoff distance required and decreasing maximum takeoff mass. These had greatly affected landing performance by influencing diversions and missed approaches in Nigeria. It is observed that weather conditions in Nigeria also contribute negatively to the safety of flights, where their operations do even lead to financial losses and incidences. These multicultural and diverse weather-climatic conditions, present across Nigeria's terrestrial regions exacerbate many scenarios. Periods like the wet season, the dry season and the harmattan season, present a whole spectrum of specific hurdles that must be addressed before aircraft takeoff operations. These are notable effects associated with meteorological patterns, associated with seasonal variations. Thus, knowing precisely how weather events may influence aircraft performance, is crucial in improving operational efficiency, flight safety and better aviation experience. This study investigates the impact of weather conditions on aircraft takeoff performance in Nigeria, with a focus on three major airports: Murtala Muhammed International Airport Lagos, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport Abuja, and Mallam Aminu Kano International Airport Kano. Utilizing meteorological data from 2020 to 2025 and performance parameters of the Boeing 737-800, a Python-based simulation engine integrated with a Streamlit web interface was developed to analyze performance across various weather scenarios. The research, models how key weather variables like temperature, wind, precipitation, humidity, pressure, and visibility affect critical takeoff metrics of the aircraft. These include thrust, lift, acceleration, and required runway length. Thereafter, Statistical methods for descriptive analysis like correlation and time series analysis were employed to validate and interpret the results. The findings reveal that high temperatures and low air density significantly increase takeoff distance, while wet and low-friction runways heighten the risk of hydroplaning. It also shows that harmattan-induced poor visibility compounds operational risks. The research provides recommendations for airlines, airport authorities, and regulators to enhance safety and efficiency during adverse weather conditions. It also contributes a customized performance simulation tool and localized data-driven insights that can support airport runway operational planning in Nigeria civil aviation space.