Factor analysis of trends and strategic prospects for the development of the Russian agricultural economy

Abstract

This article presents the results of a comprehensive factor analysis aimed at identifying the key determinants and directions for the medium-term development of Russia’s agro-industrial complex. The research methodology is based on a systems approach that integrates the influence of various factors—from macroeconomic and technological to institutional and climatic—into a single analytical model. Within the framework of a systems approach to studying agrarian economics, the analytical model represents an abstract and formalized representation of the object of study, which is the Russian agro-industrial complex and rural areas. This model reflects their structure, as well as the internal and external interrelations that determine the patterns of their functioning and development. It allows for the identification of cause-and-effect relationships between various factors, such as macroeconomic, technological, institutional, climatic, and socio-demographic factors, and final indicators, including production volumes, exports, food security, and the standard of living in rural areas, in order to ensure the quality of life in rural areas. Through a retrospective analysis and expert assessments, the paper identified key groups of factors that align with the national policy for the socioeconomic development of the agro-industrial complex and rural areas, and defined the nature of their interrelations and contradictions using a dichotomous approach. The authors developed three alternative development scenarios: «Technological Leapfrog», «Stagnant Self-Sufficiency», and «Adaptive Resource Economy».