Macro-financial changes in the Russian economy

Abstract

Subject. The relationship between the dynamics of the money supply, the government debt market, the structure of banking assets and monetary policy cycles. Objectives. Identify structural shifts in the financial system, assess their impact on the formation of macrofinancial risks and opportunities, and provide scientifically sound forecasts and recommendations for regulators. Methods. The study is based on econometric modeling, comparative analysis of structural components, and a method of extrapolating identified trends to build scenario forecasts. Results. A parallel exponential growth of the monetary base and the volume of the federal loan bond market has been revealed, accompanied by a sharp reduction in the participation of non-residents, which signals the formation of a sovereign financing model. Multidirectional trends in the structure of banking assets have been identified: steady growth in lending to the corporate and retail sectors, explosive growth in interbank transactions and high cyclical volatility of other items. The cyclical nature of monetary policy is determined, with phases of sharp tightening and prolonged periods of negative and high positive real interest rates. A new configuration has been established in the financial system, characterized by an increased role of internal sources of financing and credit expansion, while generating fundamental risks: inflationary pressure from an increase in the money supply, an increasing debt burden on the budget and the private sector, and a decrease in investor diversification. Conclusions. The novelty of the study lies in substantiating the need for regulators to implement a comprehensive policy balancing between liquidity sterilization, macroprudential control over credit risks, the development of the domestic capital market and cyclical monetary policy easing.