Innovative sustainable concrete with waste glass materials: an explainable machine learning for compressive strength prediction

Abstract

Sustainable concrete incorporating waste glass materials has emerged as a promising solution to reduce environmental impacts associated with cement production and natural aggregate depletion. Accurate prediction of compressive strength (CS) is essential for optimizing such mixtures and ensuring structural reliability. In this study, five machine learning models: Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest-Neighbors (KNN), Adaptive-Boosting (AdaBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Extreme-Gradient-Boosting (XGBoost) were developed and optimized using Grid Search to predict the CS of concrete containing glass powder (GP) and glass sand (GS). A dataset of 270 experimental samples was utilized, incorporating eight input parameters, including curing duration, cement content, GP, GS, water, density, sand, and basalt. Among the models, LightGBM demonstrated superior predictive performance during testing, achieving a determination coefficient (R² = 0.964) and Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE = 2.05 MPa), followed by XGBoost (R² = 0.955) and RF (R² = 0.953). In contrast, KNN and AdaBoost exhibited comparatively lower performance. SHAP and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses identified curing duration and cement content as the most influential parameters, while water and GP exhibited negative effects on CS. To enhance practical applicability, the LightGBM model was deployed through a user-friendly GUI, enabling rapid and reliable prediction of CS and providing an accurate, interpretable, and practical decision-support tool for sustainable concrete mixture design.