Aug 2026· Innovations in Systems and Software Engineering· Vol 22· 0 citations· 43 references
Computer Science
TL;DR
It is concluded that the genuinely difficult part of deployment is tail-event detection rather than directional forecasting, and that a credible evaluation must rely on event-sensitive metrics and time-aware validation; without them, performance under heavy imbalance is easily overstated.
The results, together with ablation studies, show that LLM-based forecasting can succeed in specialized, long-context financial workflows, with hindsight-based supervision and expert-designed context playing a critical role.
Hinal Jajal, Michał Mucha, C. Sweat et al.· arXiv.org· 0 citations
The contribution is methodological: a defensible, fully seeded protocol that prevents the base-rate trap, together with the replicated negative result it produces.
This work examines the pipeline on Russell 2000 equities under three stock-selection regimes and suggests that stock-selection regime and allocator choice matter at least as much as the sentiment model, and that separating firm-specific and macro-exposure triggers is more informative than requiring both to fire simulta...
Alireza Kargarzadeh, Nariman Khaledian, Navid Parvini et al.· 0 citations
Predicting financial asset returns remains one of the most difficult challenges in empirical finance, driven by the low signal-to-noise ratio and the semi-strong form of market efficiency. While deep learning models, especially LSTM networks, have shown promise in capturing temporal dependencies, standard architectures...
The results support Attention-BiLSTM as a temporally attributable early-warning component, while XGBoost offers the best efficiency-performance trade-off.
Holding the data fixed and evaluating roughly a dozen univariate methods without exogenous regressors, it is found that asset returns remain near unforecastable across every method family and that hybrid and machine learning methods exhibit additional forecasting power on basis spreads and bank indicators.
J. Bejarano, Viren Desai, K. Keshava et al.· 0 citations
We use cookies to run the site and, with your consent, for analytics and to show ads.
See our Cookie Policy.