Geospatial Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Sheringal DIR, NW Pakistan

Abstract

The Sheringal region of Upper Dir, situated in the tectonically active Kohistan mountains of northern Pakistan, experiences frequent landslides due to steep slopes, monsoon rainfall, and anthropogenic influences. This study addresses the lack of localized susceptibility models by developing and evaluating a decision-support framework for assessing landslide susceptibility in the Sheringal region of northern Pakistan. Eleven causative factors, namely slope, lithology, rainfall, earthquake zones, distance to faults, elevation, NDVI, distance to streams, roads, TWI, and aspect, were weighted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Weighted Overlay Mapping (WOM) approaches. An inventory of 71 landslides were marked from satellite data and field observations, which guided the calibration of the model results. Results identified slope as the dominant factor, followed by lithology and rainfall. Validation through ROC curves confirmed strong predictive accuracy (AHP AUC: 0.83; WOM AUC: 0.79). Landslide susceptibility maps from both approaches were developed and classified into low to high-risk zones. Both the AHP and WOM susceptibility maps revealed nearly consistent spatial distributions, the AHP model exhibited slightly better predictive capability based on the validation results, indicating that it offers a more precise assessment of landslide susceptibility in the studied region. Theses maps provide valuable information for identifying high risk regions and can support slope stabilization measures and land-use planning.