Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization and Machine Learning Framework for Enhanced Prediction of Ground Settlement during Rectangular Pipe Jacking

Abstract

Accurate prediction of ground settlement induced by rectangular pipe jacking, a prevalent trenchless technology in urban infrastructure development, remains a significant challenge. This study addresses this by developing and evaluating a robust machine learning (ML) framework. Leveraging 104 sets of field monitoring data from the Liuye Avenue West Extension rectangular pipe jacking project in Hunan, China, key construction parameters including jacking force, advance rate, and grouting pressure were utilized as inputs to predict ground settlement. A Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm was integrated for automated hyperparameter tuning of six distinct ML models: standalone Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), Random Forest (RF), and their respective PSO-optimized counterparts. Comprehensive performance evaluation using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Coefficient of Determination (R^2) revealed that the PSO-LSSVM hybrid model achieved superior predictive accuracy and generalization capability. Specifically, on the test dataset, the PSO-LSSVM model yielded an MSE of 0.367, MAE of 0.424, and an R^2 of 0.941. These findings demonstrate that the proposed PSO-enhanced LSSVM model significantly outperforms baseline models, offering a highly effective and reliable tool for predicting ground deformation in similar complex pipe jacking projects.