Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Tuberculosis incidence in Gombe State

Abstract

TB continues to be a major public health concern in Nigeria, particularly in the northeastern parts of the country due to ongoing social economic and environmental risk factors. It is therefore necessary to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of TB in order to enhance disease surveillance and intervention efforts. In this research, the spatio-temporal pattern of TB occurrence in the 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Gombe State, Nigeria within the period 2020 to 2024 is analyzed using R-based spatial analytical techniques. Data on annual TB notifications were mapped using the R-based choropleth technique while global spatial autocorrelation was measured using the Global Moran’s I method on an annual basis. The findings indicate a steady rise in the incidence of TB throughout the period of investigation, with consistent high-incidence LGAs such as Yamaltu/Deba and Akko. Although there was no significant spatial autocorrelation of TB incidence between 2020 and 2023, positive spatial autocorrelation was observed in 2024 (Moran’s I = 0.0923, p-value = 0.024). Keywords Spatial; Temporal; Tuberculosis