Skip to content
Preprint

From Neural Network Decisions to Training Cases: An Exact Account via Case-Based Decision Theory

Jul 2026 · 1 citation · 35 references
Computer Science

TL;DR

This work shows that an OLS action readout fitted on a fixed neural representation admits an exact case-based decomposition, and identifies a sufficient regime for CBDT similarity semantics; outside it, the coefficients should generally be treated as signed Gram-geometric influence.

Abstract

Neural networks increasingly guide decisions in high-stakes domains such as medical diagnosis, credit approval, and energy bidding. Audit in these settings requires case-level evidence: which training cases support an action and what outcomes they carried. Case-based decision theory (CBDT) formalizes this reasoning by aggregating outcome support from remembered cases. We show that an OLS action readout fitted on a fixed neural representation admits an exact case-based decomposition. Each action score is a weighted sum of training-case returns, with coefficients determined by empirical Gram geometry. We identify a sufficient regime for CBDT similarity semantics; outside it, the coefficients should generally be treated as signed Gram-geometric influence. The decomposition yields audit signals that trace scores to training cases, measure action coherence, and identify weak support. Across synthetic CBDT, PJM, Adult Income, and Default Credit tasks, the method recovers case-level preference structure and achieves the highest mean Top-30 consistency among compared attribution baselines, while remaining competitive on support reconstruction. The audit requires only fitting an OLS top-layer probe, without retraining the representation or accessing the original optimization trajectory; probe fidelity is measured by score reconstruction.

View source

Similar papers

Jul 2026

More Data, Worse Decisions? Preference Reversals in Neural Networks under Gram Incompatibility

This work shows that pooled refitting recomputes the inverse-Gram geometry used to weight source evidence, which can reverse shared preferences, and derive exact and approximate preservation conditions, and develops a three-stage audit that traces strict pairwise reversals through decision changes to task-defined utili...

Yanli Yan, Yuanzheng Li, Yong Zhao et al. · 0 citations
Review Open access Jul 2026

Causal Inference and Machine Learning for Reliable Decision-Making

The methodological bridge connecting causal reasoning with modern supervised learning is reviewed and why correlation-driven models give biased answers to questions about actions is explained.

R. M. · 0 citations
Open access 2026

From Prediction to Decision: A Counterfactual Machine Reasoning Framework for ESG Analysis

A Machine Reasoning (MR) framework that transforms ESG evaluation into a structured decision-making process that decomposes ESG evidence into three independent streams: environmental efficiency, financial comparative position, and causal profit-margin effects estimated via DoWhy, and integrates them through five condit...

Nizam Tanzina, Kyupil Yeon · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Causal Evidentiary Governance for High-Risk Machine Learning Systems

Evaluation on the German Credit dataset shows that harm associated with specific causal pathways can be substantially understated by associational fairness metrics, and a proof-of-concept implementation demonstrates operationally plausible throughput and highlights relevant performance tradeoffs.

Sama L. Kareem, B. Celiktas · 0 citations
Review Aug 2026

FinRiskAtlas: Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Large Language Models for Financial Risk Review

FinRiskAtlas is introduced, a Chinese-language benchmark that evaluates financial LLMs along two complementary dimensions: operation execution under fixed evidence states and evidence-state control under evolving review conditions, and shows that broad financial capability scores do not fully capture where models are r...

Su-Yang Zhong, Jingzhe Zhu, Qi Xu et al. · 1 citation
Jul 2026

Bounding the Causal Impact of ML-assisted Decision-Making via Counterfactual Correctness

This work presents a partial-identification approach to using prior RCT data to construct bounds on the causal effect of a new model, and leverages assumptions relating fine-grained predictive accuracy to downstream outcomes.

Jonathan Zhang, Erik Skalnes, Jacob M. Chen et al. · 0 citations

We use cookies to run the site and, with your consent, for analytics and to show ads. See our Cookie Policy.