Determination of the probability of incidents involving critical infrastructure workers caused by fatigue during wartime

Abstract

The aim of the study is to establish a causal relationship between chronic cumulative fatigue of critical infrastructure workers and an increase in the probability of a hazardous event. To assess the risk of occupational injuries, the concept of “human error”, James Reason’s “Swiss cheese” model and the Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) method were used under the simultaneous action of military, meteorological and social factors. It was found that combat operations, blackouts, cold stress, mobilization pressure, normalization of fatigue and concealment of symptoms reduce the effectiveness of the four protective barriers. The probability of failure of each barrier increases by 5–50 times, reaching 0.95–1.0 for key factors, and the probability of simultaneous breakthrough of all barriers is 78–95%. In the energy sector, fatigue is exacerbated by long working hours, emergency modes, staff shortages and insufficient rest. Staff rotation, pre-shift medical screening, fatigue monitoring, revision of working hours and creation of conditions for recovery are proposed. The scientific novelty lies in the adaptation of the “Swiss cheese” model to LOPA to assess the convergence of three risk groups. The practical value lies in the development of recommendations for implementation at critical infrastructure facilities.