Modelling the impact of the social environment on quality-of-life resilience under external threats

Abstract

The article addresses the problem of ensuring public resilience in Ukraine amid unprecedented external security shocks. The research aims to perform comprehensive modelling and quantify the impact of social environment factors on the ability of the population’s quality of life to maintain dynamic stability. Based on a systems approach, a set of normative requirements for the target state of the social environment has been established, structured by its institutional, infrastructural, sociocultural, and financial components. The mechanisms by which the social environment passes through successive phases of absorption, adaptation, and progressive transformation under the impact of external pressure have been investigated. A matrix of mutual influence among the social, demographic, and ecological components of welfare resilience has been developed which has made it possible to identify cross-sectoral impulses and risk transmission channels between subsystems. The key factors of the social environment have been identified and classified, divided into military disincentives (unemployment, infrastructure destruction, migration outflow, landmines) and internal resilience catalysts (digitalisation, philanthropy, institutional trust, educational attainment). It is proved that the cumulative destructive pressure of the defined environmental elements is significantly neutralised through the capitalisation of society’s socio-digital potential. Two alternative macro-scenarios for the system’s development in the medium term are substantiated: inertial exhaustion and proactive modernisation. Based on the modelling results, aligned strategic priorities of public policy are formulated, aimed at overcoming systemic labour market distortions, strengthening the financial autonomy of territorial communities, and transitioning public administration to a people-centered, networked model of post-war recovery.