Strategic partnership maintenance under geopolitical friction: a composite-indicator analysis of China–Malaysia relations, 2015–2024

Abstract

Strategic partnerships can remain economically dense even when the institutional channels that keep cooperation workable weaken. This article develops the Strategic Partnership Maintenance Composite Index (SPMCI), a formative measure of observable maintenance activity rather than latent trust, alignment, or resilience. It applies the index to China–Malaysia relations from 2015 to 2024 using eight indicators across economic, political, security, and societal dimensions. Formal relationship status is kept outside the composite to separate diplomatic labeling from realized maintenance activity. The baseline records 66.4 in 2015, reaches a low of 19.4 in 2020, remains weak through 2022, and rises to 71.5 in 2024. The broad 2020–2022 trough and 2023–2024 recovery survive leave-one-indicator-out tests, equal dimension weights, alternative scaling choices, document-count sensitivities, and the exclusion of pandemic-sensitive mobility indicators, although exact annual ordering changes under some specifications. The 95% Dirichlet intervals are treated as weight-sensitivity bounds rather than statistical confidence intervals. Economic exchange provides a material floor, while political and security channels vary more sharply with the surrounding relationship environment. The results support a narrow claim: formal partnership status can persist while the observable channels that sustain cooperation change substantially over time.