Priorities, interdependencies, and pathways for net-zero energy building adoption in the UAE: a Bayesian network-informed mixed-methods study

Abstract

Net-zero energy buildings (NZEBs) are central to reducing building-sector energy demand, while wider adoption in hot-arid, rapidly urbanizing settings depends on regulatory, financial, professional, operational, and behavioral conditions alongside technical performance. Using the United Arab Emirates’ strong sustainability and net-zero foundations as a forward-looking application context, this study addresses an analytical gap by distinguishing factors that stakeholders prioritize independently from those occupying influential positions within a connected adoption system. A sequential exploratory mixed-methods design combined five expert interviews with a survey of 30 sector professionals. The qualitative phase refined 15 implementation challenge factors and nine enablers. A Likelihood-Impact Relative Importance Index (LI-RII) ranked standalone priority, while a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) represented conditional interdependencies and generated Network Propagation Impact (NPI) scores. LI-RII ranked occupant-behavior considerations, approval-process duration, and workforce capacity as the leading standalone challenges, whereas BBN/NPI ranked system-integration requirements, initial capital requirements, and occupant-behavior considerations highest. Challenge-rank correspondence was low (Spearman’s rho = 0.0673; Kendall’s tau-b = 0.0976). Public Awareness Campaigns ranked first among enablers under both methods, although the overall enabler rankings differed (rho = −0.0167; tau-b = −0.0556). Government Incentives reached five of nine enabler nodes, Better Financing four, Public Awareness Campaigns three, and Industry Training Programs two. The coordinated four-action portfolio reached eight of nine nodes and retained seven to eight nodes under leave-one-edge-out checks. The findings demonstrate that immediate stakeholder priorities and modeled network leverage provide distinct but complementary decision perspectives. The study contributes a transparent decision-support approach that integrates both perspectives into a coordinated implementation portfolio designed to connect and amplify the UAE’s established policy, market, renewable-energy, green-building, and professional-capability strengths.