Risk Management and Resilience Enhancement of New-Type Rural Collective Economy Projects in Karst Mountainous Areas: A Case Study of Hechi, Guangxi

Abstract

To address the overlapping risks and weak agricultural resilience in karst underdeveloped mountainous areas, this study examines 110 new-type rural collective economy projects in Hechi City, Guangxi. Grounded theory is used to qualitatively identify risk factors. The analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are then combined to quantify risk indicator weights and overall risk intensity, clarify how various risks constrain agricultural resilience, and construct risk control pathways to enhance resilience. Findings reveal that risks fall into four categories—systemic, external environmental, operational and management, and financial and capital risks—encompassing ten secondary dimensions. The overall risk level is moderate but clearly stratified. Market price, capital recovery, operational and sales, investment decision-making, and internal governance are relatively high-risk dimensions. Specifically, policy support risk carries the greatest relative importance weight, while natural disaster risk has the lowest current intensity. Guided by prioritizing relatively high-risk areas for targeted reinforcement and routinely consolidating moderate risks, this paper proposes a three-dimensional strategy: targeted risk control, routine foundation consolidation, and multi-dimensional safeguards. This provides theoretical support and practical reference for precise risk governance and synergistic agricultural resilience enhancement in ecologically fragile karst regions.