Cybersecurity Maturity vs. Operational Reality: Correlating National Governance Frameworks with Empirical Incident Data

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between national cybersecurity maturity and the empirical reality of cyber threats within the European Union. Utilizing a multi-layered data approach, the research correlates institutional indicators from the National Cyber Security Index, the Global Cybersecurity Index, and the Digital Economy and Society Index with incident data. Three state as were selected to represent the spectrum of European cybersecurity development tiers. The analysis reveals that while high maturity levels do not necessarily correlate with a reduction in incident frequency, they significantly influence threat actor typologies and detection capabilities. Conversely, regulatory gaps in areas such as supply chain security and centralized policy coordination correspond to a higher prevalence of non-state, opportunistic attacks targeting digital enablers. This study provides valuable insights for the implementation of the NIS2 Directive, emphasizing that national resilience depends on closing specific institutional and sectoral gaps.