Quantum Value Equation: A Minimal Decision Model for Quantum-Assisted Oncology Drug Discovery Assessment

Abstract

Anticancer drug discovery is hindered by tumor heterogeneity, resistance, and toxicity, which raise development risk and limit the reliability of current computational methods. Quantum computing is explored as a complementary tool, but existing evidence is fragmented and often overstated. Using a verification-oriented integrative review, this paper maps the current state of quantum applications in chemistry, optimization, and hybrid quantum-classical machine learning. Its main contribution is the Quantum Value Equation (QVE) -a minimal decision model for assessing when a quantum component is genuinely decision-relevant in oncology drug R&D, accounting for validation strength, integration costs, and uncertainty. The review indicates conditional near-term value in bounded hybrid workflows, while broad quantum advantage in chemically relevant simulations remains largely prospective.