Scenario clustered robust Pareto optimization of photovoltaic wind battery and diesel hybrid microgrids for cost emissions and reliability

Abstract

Hybrid microgrid planning requires a balanced selection of renewable generation, battery storage, diesel backup, power-interface capacity, lifecycle cost, emissions, and reliability. This study presents an integrated scenario-clustered robust Pareto design framework for PV–wind–battery–diesel hybrid microgrid planning. The proposed framework first groups demand and renewable-resource behavior into representative operating scenarios that capture high-demand, low-renewable, renewable-surplus, and mixed-resource conditions. Candidate system designs are then evaluated using weighted scenario performance and worst-case reliability constraints. The design vector includes PV capacity, wind capacity, modular battery capacity, diesel-generator capacity, power-interface rating, and operating limits. A feasibility-first robust Pareto selection strategy is used to prevent low-cost but unreliable designs from being selected as final solutions. The selected feasible compromise design contains 820 kW of PV, 420 kW of wind, 1850.4 kWh of modular battery capacity, and 350 kW of diesel capacity. It achieves an NPC of 4.56 million USD, an LCOE of 0.119 USD/kWh, annual CO₂ emissions of 430 tCO₂/year, an LPSP of 0.85%, and a renewable fraction of 80%. The results show that scenario-clustered robust design can improve the practical selection of hybrid microgrid configurations by preserving reliability under representative operating conditions while balancing cost and emission objectives.