Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Food Processing in Africa: Challenges, Adaptation Strategies, and Prospects for Food Sovereignty

Abstract

The Russo-Ukrainian war, which began in February 2022, has constituted a major systemic shock to African food systems by disrupting global supply chains for cereals, vegetable oils, and fertilizers originating from the Black Sea region. The conflict exposed the structural vulnerability of the African continent, which remains heavily dependent on imports to meet its demand for wheat, refined vegetable oils, and animal feed. Sectoral analysis reveals differentiated impacts across food processing industries, including shrinking profit margins in the milling sector, restructuring within the vegetable oil refining industry, and a severe crisis in the animal feed sector that has significantly affected poultry production. The case of Cameroon illustrates both the potential and the limitations of import-substitution strategies, particularly the incorporation of cassava flour into bread production, which remains constrained by issues related to standardization, economic competitiveness, and rheological performance. In response to these disruptions, private-sector actors have implemented various resilience strategies, including supply chain diversification, greater flexibility in product formulations, and vertical integration. The prospects for African food sovereignty are built upon three fundamental pillars: the technological valorization of indigenous crops, the industrialization of local agricultural value chains, and effective regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Consequently, the current crisis represents a historic opportunity to redesign African agrifood systems on more resilient, sustainable, and endogenous foundations.