Adaptive Mechanisms for Foreign Economic Activity of Agri-Food Enterprises in War-Torn Economies: An Integral Assessment Approach

Abstract

The full-scale war in Ukraine has unprecedentedly disrupted global food supply chains, highlighting the vulnerability of traditional export models. This study examines the transformation and adaptive mechanisms of the foreign economic activity of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises under conditions of extreme geopolitical and economic instability. Existing frameworks adequately describe export potential in stable markets; however, a significant research gap remains in the development of integrated assessment models for war-affected economies characterized by infrastructure destruction and logistical disruptions. This study introduces an integral model for assessing export potential, combining production, financial, logistics, institutional, and strategic components. Tested on empirical data from 2021-2024, the model reveals a severe drop in the export potential index in 2022, followed by a gradual recovery driven by logistics reengineering and a shift toward higher value-added products. Comparative analytical assessment suggests that during wartime conditions, changes in export performance are more sensitive to logistics constraints than to production factors, highlighting the strategic importance of supply chain adaptability. The proposed adaptive mechanisms provide actionable insights for managerial decision-making to enhance supply chain resilience in volatile environments.