Institutional Conservation and Carbon Emission Mitigation: County-Level Evidence from the Establishment of China’s National Parks

Abstract

In the context of intensified global climate governance, accurately assessing how institutionalized ecological conservation reshapes regional carbon reduction pathways holds significant practical importance. Treating the official establishment of China's first batch of national parks in 2021 as a quasi-natural experiment, this study systematically examines how the national park system affects county-level carbon emission intensity. Specifically, we construct a propensity score matching with difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) model using a balanced panel dataset of 120 counties from 2018 to 2023 to identify the policy's impacts and its underlying mechanisms. The findings demonstrate that the establishment of national parks reduces county-level carbon emission intensity. Mechanism analyses reveal that national parks reduce emissions through a dual pathway: fostering tertiary sector growth and enhancing forest ecological benefits. This highlights a synergy between institutional constraints and ecological carbon sequestration. Furthermore, the emission reduction effects are more pronounced in counties characterized by favorable geographical locations, rich natural endowments, solid economic foundations, optimized industrial structures, and strong capacities for governance and social absorption. This study provides causal evidence at the county level regarding the impact of institutional conservation on carbon emissions. By doing so, it broadens the comprehensive evaluation framework for the climate governance functions of protected areas. Furthermore, the findings offer policy recommendations for optimizing the spatial layout of national parks and advancing regional eco-economic transitions.