Ecological civilization demonstration zones and sustainable low-carbon agricultural transformation: Quasi-natural evidence from China

Abstract

Promoting sustainable low-carbon agricultural transformation is essential for building climate-smart and sustainable food systems, particularly in countries where agricultural production remains closely associated with resource consumption and environmental pressure. This study examines whether China’s National Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones (ECDZ) reduce agricultural carbon emission intensity (ACEI) and thereby support greener agricultural production. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces during 2003–2024, we treat ECDZ construction as a quasi-natural experiment and estimate its effects using double machine learning (DML) and a spatial difference-in-differences (SDID) model. The results show that ECDZ construction significantly reduces ACEI, and this conclusion remains robust to parallel-trend tests, the exclusion of concurrent policy shocks, and alternative machine-learning algorithms. Mechanism tests indicate that the reduction operates through agricultural green technological progress and agricultural industrial structure upgrading. Spatial analysis further shows significant spillover effects, suggesting that ECDZ construction reduces ACEI not only locally but also in neighboring regions. These findings provide empirical evidence that ecological civilization policies can support sustainable low-carbon agricultural transformation and contribute to climate-oriented food system governance. They also highlight the need to strengthen green technology diffusion, agricultural structural upgrading, and regional policy coordination.