Two decades of Cyclone Detection through the Enhancement of Multi-Hazard Early Warning System in Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia's exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards has increased in recent decades, underscoring the need for robust early warning systems. Although near the equator, events such as Cyclone Vamei and Cyclone Senyar exposed critical gaps in national preparedness, including limited forecasting, fragmented coordination, and reliance on external agencies. Over two decades, Indonesia has strengthened its disaster risk governance through a shift toward proactive risk management and investment in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS). Law No. 24 of 2007 established a comprehensive legal framework, while institutional development led by BMKG and BNPB enabled MHEWS implementation, supported by international partners and technologies such as artificial intelligence, big-data analytics, and Sentinel-2 monitoring. This study adopts a qualitative approach, combining semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with stakeholders from national agencies, local governments, and technical institutions to capture coordination and operational challenges. It presents a comparative analysis of Cyclone Vamei (2001) and Cyclone Senyar (2025) across legal, technological, and social-coordination dimensions, including fragile and conflict-affected contexts such as the Aceh conflict. Findings reveal a marked shift from reactive to proactive risk management, though challenges remain in sustainability, inter-agency integration, and subnational implementation. Indonesia stands at a critical crossroads where sustained commitment to prevention-oriented systems is essential.