Ecological footprint and socioeconomic drivers of climate potential productivity in Nigeria

Abstract

Climate potential productivity (CPP) in agrarian economies is frequently analysed through a purely biophysical lens, obscuring the socioeconomic pathways through which environmental degradation, human capital deficits, and energy constraints prevent actual agricultural output from realising its climate-determined ceiling. Using annual time-series data for Nigeria from 1990 to 2024, this study examines the determinants of realised climate potential productivity computed via the Thornthwaite Memorial model. Employing the novel Dynamic ARDL simulation framework corroborated by DOLS estimation and a cereal yield robustness check, the findings show that human capital and renewable energy exert significant positive long-run effects on CPP, with elasticities of approximately 0.478% and 0.510% respectively, while ecological footprint and economic expansion impose negative but statistically inconclusive pressures. In the short run, renewable energy delivers a pronounced productivity response of 0.921%, underscoring its capacity to rapidly close the realisation gap. Dynamic simulations confirm that positive shocks to human capital and renewable energy generate persistent CPP gains, whereas ecological intensification and unmanaged income growth erode climate-conditioned agricultural potential over time. These results identify human capital development and clean energy transition as the primary actionable channels through which Nigeria can narrow the gap between actual and climate-determined agricultural productivity. The study underscores the need for integrated policies combining agricultural extension, renewable energy infrastructure, and ecological conservation to enhance long-run climate-conditioned agricultural productivity, with potential implications for improving staple crop yields and strengthening the productive base upon which food security ultimately depends.