Diagnostic and prognostic value of fibroblast growth factor 23 in acute kidney injury: systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Abstract Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with high mortality and adverse outcomes. Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) has emerged as a potential biomarker for AKI; however, its diagnostic and prognostic utility remains inconsistent. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating circulating intact FGF23 (iFGF23) or C-terminal FGF23 (cFGF23) (PROSPERO: CRD42022302659). PubMed, EMBASE, CNKI, and Wanfang databases were searched through June 9, 2026. QUADAS-2 was used for quality assessment. A random-effects bivariate model pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative likelihood ratio (PLR/NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC AUC). Results: Twenty-three studies were included: 17 diagnostic, 6 prognostic (one addressing both). For AKI diagnosis, the pooled sensitivity was 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.86), specificity 0.82 (95% CI 0.75–0.89), PLR 4.40 (95% CI 2.59–6.21), NLR 0.25 (95% CI 0.16–0.34), DOR 17.49 (95% CI 8.67–35.16), and SROC AUC 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.92). Substantial heterogeneity was observed (I2 = 67%), with iFGF23 demonstrating higher accuracy than cFGF23 (AUC 0.91 vs 0.81). For AKI mortality, pooled sensitivity was 0.77 (95% CI 0.69–0.84), specificity 0.76 (95% CI 0.70–0.82), DOR 10.89 (95% CI 6.86–17.30), and SROC AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.83). Significant heterogeneity was noted (I2 = 86.2% for sensitivity, 80.4% for specificity). No significant publication bias was detected. Conclusions: Circulating FGF23 exhibits moderate-to-high diagnostic and moderate prognostic performance in AKI, though interpretation is limited by substantial heterogeneity. It may serve as a complementary biomarker for risk stratification, pending further validation with standardized protocols.