Climate Change and Sustainable Hydropower Development in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic: A Review of Challenges and Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic are among the most hydropower-dependent countries in Central Asia, with electricity systems strongly influenced by mountain snow and glacier-fed river flows. Hydropower provides important benefits for energy security, economic development, and regional electricity trade, but this dependence also creates vulnerability to changes in water availability and seasonal hydrological conditions. This review examines the energy systems of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, focusing on hydropower development, energy-sector challenges, climate-related changes in glaciers and hydrology, renewable-energy diversification, and transboundary water–energy management. The review synthesizes evidence from scientific literature, international organizations, government sources, and other publicly available materials. The findings indicate that rising temperatures, glacier retreat, changes in snow and melt dynamics, and increasing hydrological variability may increase uncertainty in river flows and reservoir inflows, creating additional challenges for hydropower planning and long-term energy security. Although hydropower is expected to remain the principal source of electricity in both countries, complementary development of solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass resources could reduce the concentration of hydrological risk. The review also highlights the importance of climate-informed energy planning, infrastructure modernization, improved hydrological and climate information, and stronger transboundary water–energy coordination. Overall, long-term energy resilience in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic will depend on integrating hydropower development with renewable-energy diversification, climate adaptation, and regional cooperation. Further quantitative research is needed to assess climate impacts on hydropower generation and the technical and economic feasibility of alternative energy pathways under future climate conditions.