Undercurrents: resource dependence strategies across the adaptive cycle in a critical raw material-dependent supply network

Abstract

The study aims to examine how firms in a supply network (SN) dependent on critical raw materials (CRMs) adapt to environmental uncertainty arising from contemporary geopolitical tensions. To address this aim, we draw on the theoretical lenses of adaptive cycles of the panarchy theory and resource dependence theory. We employ a sequence-structuring theoretical elaboration approach, treating adaptation as an evolving process, to investigate adaptive responses to geopolitical tensions within CRM-dependent SN. We use primary interview data from 19 informants, comprising 3 industrial experts and 16 senior executives within firms embedded in a Nordic SN dependent on CRMs. These data are complemented with SN- and firm-level secondary data. Interview data were analysed abductively using thematic analysis, while SN data were analysed using a theoretically derived set of network structural measures as complementary contextual evidence. We find that across the phases of the adaptive cycle, firms systematically reconfigure their strategies. During conservation and release, firms prioritise negotiating with the environment and avoiding dependencies to preserve continuity and restore short-term adaptability under high uncertainty. In contrast, during reorganisation and exploitation, firms rely on absorbing the environment and creating the environment to redesign dependency structures and support longer-term strategic renewal and growth. Under conditions of high dependency, firms tend to normalise geopolitical risk rather than respond adaptively to it. This study advances empirically grounded, process-oriented research on how responses unfold across SN adaptive cycle phases during geopolitical tensions.