Impact of Climate Dynamics and Agricultural Inputs on Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in India: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

Abstract

In India, where agriculture is both a foundation of the economy and a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, rising temperatures due to climate change are accelerating environmental degradation while simultaneously undermining the resilience of the agrarian sector. In this context, the present study examines the long-run relationship between agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, climate variables and agricultural inputs in India. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model technique is applied to time series data on six key variables from 1990 to 2021. The findings of the ARDL bound F-test confirmed the significant long-run cointegration among variables under consideration. Furthermore, area under paddy crop (0.257) and manure nitrogen content (0.842) exert significant and positive long-run effects on greenhouse gas emissions. Also, maximum temperature (0.341) and rainfall (0.086) positively contribute to the rising of greenhouse gases in the long run. With an adjusted R2 value of 0.947, the ARDL model exhibits strong explanatory power and confirms the impact of climate and agricultural drivers on agricultural emissions in India. These findings highlight the need to consider the climate variables in agricultural GHG mitigation efforts and policy strategies.