DEVELOPMENT OF A METHODOLOGY FOR AUTOMATED FORECASTING OF THE DEMAND FOR SPARE PARTS OF ROLLING STOCK AGRICULTURAL MOTOR TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The efficiency of freight transportation in the agro-industrial complex is largely determined by the technical readiness of the vehicles in operation. The objective of this study is to develop and test a methodology for as-sessing spare parts requirements for rolling stock. This methodology enables the proper coordination of a service strategy and eliminates an unsystematic approach to repairs, thereby reducing downtime caused by failures during peak seasonal periods. The study was conducted at Agrofirma TRIO LLC in the Lipetsk Re-gion during 2024–2025. The study involved 10 trucks used for on-farm transportation. The study utilized methods for analyzing scientific and technical literature and regulatory documentation, statistical failure analysis, failure rate assessment, determination of seasonal breakdown dynamics, technical and economic analysis, and spare parts demand forecasting. In 2024, with a total operating time of 503,474 km, 248 fail-ures were recorded, corresponding to 4.90 failures per 10,000 km. Following the implementation of automat-ed system accounting and planning based on "1C: Enterprise. Maintenance and Repair" in 2025, with an op-erating time of 520,000 km, the number of failures decreased to 130, and the failure rate decreased to 2.50 failures per 10,000 km. These results confirm the feasibility of automated accounting of seasonal failure rates during operation for determining the required quantity of spare parts for agricultural rolling stock.