Scenario-Based Modelling of Life-Support Ecosystem Resilience Using Digital Tools

Abstract

This paper presents a scenario-based approach to modelling the resilience of life-support ecosystems under wartime conditions using digital tools. The study focuses on Ukraine and examines the impact of territorial, demographic, and medical factors on ecosystem resilience in the context of war-related destruction, migration processes, and increasing environmental pressure. The research combines bibliometric analysis and mathematical modelling. The bibliometric stage is based on Scopus data processed with the Bibliometrix/Biblioshiny toolkit, which made it possible to identify the dominant thematic clusters in ecosystem resilience studies. On this basis, a dynamic mathematical model of ecosystem resilience is developed. Digital tools are used as an instrument for data processing, analytical support, visualization, and scenario modelling. The model is implemented in Python using Matplotlib, which made it possible to compare alternative resilience trajectories, including crisis, compensatory, and sustainable recovery scenarios. The proposed approach expands the analytical possibilities for assessing ecosystem resilience and can be used in recovery planning and resilience-oriented decision-making.