From Digital Rural Development to the Modernization of Agriculture and Rural Areas: Provincial Evidence from China

Abstract

Agricultural-rural modernization is increasingly shaped by digital transformation, yet the relationship between digital rural development (DRD) and agricultural-rural modernization (ARM) remains debated. Using a balanced panel of 28 Chinese provincial-level regions from 2015 to 2023, this study constructs multidimensional DRD and ARM indices and estimates their relationship with two-way fixed-effects models. To reduce measurement-driven correlation, we audit overlap between the two indicator systems and construct an overlap-adjusted DRD index. Results show that DRD is positively associated with ARM after controlling for socioeconomic conditions, province fixed effects, and year fixed effects. The relationship remains positive using the overlap-adjusted index and one-period lagged DRD. Flexible nonlinear models indicate a weak association at low DRD levels, a stronger association in the middle range, and flattening at higher levels. Gradient boosting with SHAP decomposition identifies digital economy and digital industry as the strongest predictors of ARM. Spatial analysis reveals clustering in both DRD and ARM, with the gravity center of DRD shifting westward after 2019. Overall, rural digitalization is most closely related to modernization when digital resources are embedded in production, market circulation, and industrial organization.